The Optimism Bias

English

You might expect optimism to erode under the tide of news about violent conflicts, high unemployment, tornadoes and floods and all the threats and failures that shape human life. But a survey conducted last year found that while 70% thought families in general were less successful than in their parents' day, 76% of respondents were optimistic about the future of their own family.

TIP

你可能会认为，在暴力冲突、高失业率、龙卷风和洪水等各种威胁和挫折的新闻浪潮下，乐观情绪会逐渐消退。然而，去年进行的一项调查发现，尽管70%的受访者认为当今家庭不如父母那一代成功，但76%的受访者对自己家庭的未来持乐观态度。

English

Overly positive assumptions can lead to disastrous miscalculations-make us less likely to get health checkups, apply sunscreen or open a savings account, and more likely to bet the farm on a bad investment. But the bias also protects and inspires us: it keeps us moving forward rather than to the nearest high-rise ledge. Without optimism, our ancestors might never have ventured far from their tribes and we might all be cave dwellers, still huddled together and dreaming of light and heat.

TIP

过于乐观的假设会导致灾难性的误判——让我们不太可能去做健康检查、涂防晒霜或开设储蓄账户，更有可能把全部家当押在糟糕的投资上。但这种偏见也保护并激励着我们：它让我们不断前进，而不是走向最近的高楼。如果没有乐观，我们的祖先可能永远不会远离部落，我们可能都还是穴居人，仍然挤在一起，梦想着光明和温暖。

English

To make progress, we need to be able to imagine alternative realities-better ones-and we need to believe that we can achieve them. Such faith helps motivate us to pursue our goals. Optimists in general work longer hours and tend to earn more. Economists at Duke University found that optimists even save more. And although they are not less likely to divorce, they are more likely to remarry-an act that is, as Samuel Johnson wrote, the triumph of hope over experience.

TIP

为了取得进步，我们需要能够想象其他的现实——更好的现实——并且相信我们能够实现它们。这种信念有助于激励我们追求目标。乐观主义者通常工作时间更长，收入也更高。杜克大学的经济学家发现，乐观主义者的储蓄甚至更多。尽管他们离婚的可能性并不低，但他们更有可能再婚——正如塞缪尔·约翰逊所言，再婚是希望战胜经验的胜利。

English

Even if that better future is often an illusion, optimism has clear benefits in the present. Hope keeps our minds at ease, lowers stress and improves physical health. Researchers studying heart-disease patients found that optimists were more likely than nonoptimistic patients to take vitamins, eat low-fat diets and exercise, thereby reducing their overall coronary risk. A study of cancer patients revealed that pessimistic patients under the age of 60 were more likely to die within eight months than nonpessimistic patients of the same initial health, status and age.

TIP

即使美好的未来往往只是幻象，乐观在当下也拥有显而易见的益处。希望让我们心平气和，减轻压力，并改善身体健康。研究心脏病患者的研究人员发现，乐观主义者比不乐观的患者更有可能服用维生素、低脂饮食和锻炼，从而降低他们的总体冠心病风险。一项针对癌症患者的研究表明，60岁以下的悲观患者在八个月内死亡的可能性比初始健康状况、状态和年龄相同的非悲观患者更大。

English

In fact, a growing body of scientific evidence points to the conclusion that optimism may be hardwired by evolution into the human brain. The science of optimism, once scorned as an intellectually suspect province of pep rallies and smiley faces, is opening a new window on the workings of human consciousness. What it shows could fuel a revolution in psychology, as the field comes to grips with accumulating evidence that our brains aren't just stamped by the past. They are constantly being shaped by the future.

TIP

事实上，越来越多的科学证据表明，乐观主义或许是人类大脑进化过程中固有的。乐观主义的科学曾一度被蔑视为一种充满动员和笑脸的、在智力上可疑的领域，如今它正在为理解人类意识的运作方式打开一扇新的窗户。随着心理学领域开始认真研究越来越多的证据表明，我们的大脑并非仅仅受到过去的烙印，而是不断受到未来的影响，它所揭示的真相或将引发一场心理学革命。